25 Jun · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇨🇿Roman Guliak
ELO 1433
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jasek
MJ
🇨🇿Milan Jasek
ELO 1491
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Jasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+58
H2H11-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.