25 Jun · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Varcl Jnr
ELO 1473
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jnr
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1404
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+69
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.