25 Jun · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1575
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Simecek
RS
🇨🇿Richard Skacelik
ELO 1549
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+26
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.