25 Jun · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1609
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polasek
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1641
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+32
H2H10-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.