25 Jun · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1404
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Dolezal
VD
🇨🇿Vaclav Dolezal
ELO 1500
FormWWLLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+96
H2H23-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+96)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-12)