25 Jun · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1609
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wawrosz
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1593
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+16
H2H14-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.