25 Jun · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1503
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Simecek
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1575
FormWWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.