25 Jun · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vinter
ELO 1526
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vinter
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousa
ELO 1472
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Vinter
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+54
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.