25 Jun · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇨🇿Mihail Trinta
ELO 1494
FormLLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dolezal
VD
🇨🇿Vaclav Dolezal
ELO 1500
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H8-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.