25 Jun · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PD
🇨🇿Pavel Drazan
ELO 1390
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stefek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1404
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+14
H2H5-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.