25 Jun · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vorel
ELO 1549
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vorel
PP
🇺🇦Petr Provaznik
ELO 1514
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
🌟Vorel rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (23)
Fair odds · Vorel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+35
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.