25 Jun · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JV
🇺🇦Jan Vrnak
ELO 1391
FormLWLLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vrnak
MC
🇺🇦Miroslav Cervenka
ELO 1342
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
🌟Cervenka rarely covers set handicap as underdog 33% (12)
Fair odds · Vrnak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+49
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+49)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)