24 Jun · 06:25 UTCMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kosmal
ELO 1536
FormWLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Poliniewicz
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1584
FormWWLLL
44%
56%
Fair value · Poliniewicz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H5-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-1)