TT Elite Series Predictions

A transparent Elo model for TT Elite Series table tennis (Poland) · updated 11 h ago

Setka Cup Czech Liga Pro TT Elite Series TT Cup Setka Cup Women Challenger Series

Model Track RecordCalibration: Good

Walk-forward · last 11.480 graded predictions

56.6%Pick Accuracy

0.241Brier Score

0.675Log Loss

★ Featured Match▮▮▮ High Confidence

23 Jun · 02:10 UTCTip: Oracz

🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki

ELO 1421

FormLWWLL

75%AI Win ChanceStrong Favorite · Oracz

🇵🇱Jacek Oracz

ELO 1680

FormLWLWW

25%

75%

Expected WinnerOracz

Elo Advantage+259

ConfidenceElite

Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 55%Total ~75 pts

1-3

28%

0-3

26%

2-3

20%

3-2

11%

3-1

Why this pick? · 2 reasons

✓Higher Elo rating (+259)
✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)

Full prediction page →

Recent Results

Every prediction scored against the real result — nothing hidden.

64%

128 of last 200

Krystian Kolodziej vs Krzysztof Kapik

23 Jun · 01:10 UTC

pick Kolodziej 71%

1-3

Blazej Cioch vs Marcin Kowalczyk

Pawel Chojnacki vs Jacek Zelezik

Mariusz Baron vs Piotr Gumulinski

Jakub Zochniak vs Mateusz Rutkowski

Miroslaw Lewczuk vs Krzysztof Malcher

Milosz Kukawka vs Marcin Kowalczyk

Artur Kubiak vs Jerzy Debski

Grzegorz Marud vs Jakub Pruszkowski

23 Jun · 00:30 UTC

pick Pruszkowski 67%

0-3

Henryk Tkaczyk vs Jakub Cyndera

Krzysztof Kapik vs Mateusz Rutkowski

23 Jun · 00:20 UTC

pick Rutkowski 53%

2-3

Jacek Zelezik vs Jacek Oracz

23 Jun · 00:10 UTC

pick Oracz 73%

3-1

Blazej Cioch vs Krzysztof Kotyl

23 Jun · 00:10 UTC

pick Cioch 51%

1-3

Krzysztof Schaniel vs Mariusz Baron

23 Jun · 00:10 UTC

pick Baron 56%

3-2

Michal Machelski vs Krzysztof Malcher

Jakub Zochniak vs Krystian Kolodziej

Jakub Pruszkowski vs Robert Kostepski

22 Jun · 23:50 UTC

pick Pruszkowski 71%

3-0

Pawel Chojnacki vs Jerzy Debski

Marcin Kowalczyk vs Krzysztof Kotyl

Mateusz Rutkowski vs Krystian Kolodziej

22 Jun · 23:35 UTC

pick Kolodziej 65%

0-3

Accuracy Over Time

Stable numbers across windows mean the model isn't drifting. Sample size shown so equal rates aren't misread.

Last 7 days

61.0%

n = 2.009Brier 0.232

Last 30 days

58.0%

n = 8.523Brier 0.238

All time

56.6%

n = 11.480Brier 0.241

Calibration

Predicted vs actual win rate per band — close numbers mean the probabilities are honest.

BandExpectedActualn

50–55%52.8%50.7%4753

55–60%57.3%56.2%3573

60–65%62.2%62.3%1844

65%+69.0%71.1%1310

Reliability

On the diagonal = honest. Above it = the model was too cautious, below = overconfident.

Prediction Distribution

Where today's win probabilities land — the model stays honest, not overconfident.

50–55%

38%

55–60%

26%

60–65%

20%

65%+

16%

Elo Leaderboard

The strongest Setka Cup players by live Elo rating.

Krystian Kolodziej

LWWWW

216M1750

Pawel Gasiorski

WWWWW

45M1710

Andriej Fomin

WWWWW

116M1709

Milosz Kukawka

WWWWW

224M1694

Dawid Michna

WWLWW

111M1685

Wojciech Wojtaszczyk

WWWWW

175M1684

Jacek Oracz

LWLWW

108M1680

Jakub Pruszkowski

WWWWW

187M1678

Robert Szymik

WWWWW

105M1675

Maciej Domin

LWWWW

96M1672

Jakub Witkowski

WWWLL

99M1665

Jakub Kosowski

WWLWL

120M1655

Tadeusz Piotrowski

WLWWW

60M1655

Adrian Wiecek

WWWWL

160M1654

Dariusz Molenda

WLLWW

30M1653

Karol Strowski

LWWWW

121M1652

Rafal Skotniczny

WLWWW

115M1645

Lukasz Pietraszko

WWLWW

120M1640

Petr David

WLLLW

100M1640

Amirreza Abbasi

WLWLW

105M1636

Confidence tiersElite65%+High60–65%Medium55–60%Low<55%· win probability of the favourite

How it works. An Elo model trained on real TT Elite Series results estimates each player's strength; the win probability follows from the rating gap, temperature-calibrated against past outcomes. No market odds, no value claims — just transparent model output and its measured accuracy.

12.469 matches · 272 players tracked since 12 May 2026.

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