26 Jun · 01:20 MESZ · 🏸 US OpenMedium · Model Lean
MA
🇺🇸Mark Shelley Alcala
ELO 1490
FormWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Okimoto
YO
🇯🇵Yudai Okimoto
ELO 1527
FormWLWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Okimoto
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 84% · 1.18· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~89 pts
0-2
31%
1-2
28%
2-1
22%
2-0
19%
Elo Gap+37
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)