Padel Predictions
A transparent Elo model for Padel (Pro Tour) · updated 21 min ago
New · limited history. Padel just launched on DeuceLab — the Elo model is still building depth, so early predictions are less settled than our established leagues. Accuracy sharpens as more matches accumulate; the track record below is honest about that.
Model Track RecordCalibration: Good
Walk-forward · last 6.527 graded predictions
70.4%Pick Accuracy
0.186Brier Score
0.549Log Loss
Daily picks on Telegram
The model's top calls every morning + our real tracked record. Free · @Deucelab
Fri 14 AugToday
✓Abud/Blanco vs Tuwainah/Noschese2-0✓Peiro/Miranda vs Lasahido/Furqan2-0✓Roghani/Shahi vs Varghese/Potasch2-0✓Barroso/Nuñez vs Lopez/Bettineschi2-0✕Icardo/Bataller vs Lorenz/Kremnitzer2-1✕Guna/Obaidly vs Tanoso/Husin1-2✕Garcia/Ganinduto vs Cabeza/Gonzalez0-2✕Tomita/Saputra vs Gonzalez/Lopez0-2✓Chang/Domenech vs Snoek/Kostic2-0✓Vidal/Souri vs Solsona/Palomino2-0✕Setiawan/Mahendra vs Chau/Lo0-2✕Garcia/Martin vs Chillaron/Sanchez0-2✓Zhang/Chua vs Revilla/Hendrawan2-0✓Blanco/Zareianjahromi vs Alsina/Barwani2-0✕Marti/Tamrin vs Erguy/Dawani0-2✕Prayanto/Pratama vs Bernal/Landaburu0-2✓Riera/Kahrizi vs Ulhaq/Putri2-0✓Sher/Narkprasert vs Oey/Lee2-0✕Maharani/Maharani vs Putri/Awanda0-2✓Khabibulina/Sato vs Momha/Chan1-2✓Iglesia/Gracia vs Permatasari/Prisilia2-0✓Silfany/Anwar vs Darlina/R2-0✕Jovanovic/Gulnova vs Tordoff/Leinus0-2✕Palma/Ramirez vs Kurz/Ryzhova0-2✓Roman/Landa vs Watupongoh/Watupongoh2-0✕Chen/Lai vs Terranova/Neizvestnaya0-2✕Aisy/Rifdah vs Guerrero/Kutulaeva0-2✕Salvado/Anhar vs Fructuoso/Lesmana0-2✓Bigas/Lopez vs Law/Lau2-0✓Ribeiro/Gonzalez vs Dominguez/Emeralda2-0✓Fard/Novillo vs Tokumoto/Tsukamoto1-2✓Dianti/Wibowo vs Gonzalez/Santana0-2
Recent Results
Every prediction scored against the real result — nothing hidden.
64%
962 of last 1494
✓✓✓✓✕✕✕✕✓✓✕✕✓✓✕✕✓✓✕✓
Abud/Blanco vs Tuwainah/Noschese
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Abud/Blanco 75%
2-0
Peiro/Miranda vs Lasahido/Furqan
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Peiro/Miranda 50%
2-0
Roghani/Shahi vs Varghese/Potasch
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Roghani/Shahi 51%
2-0
Barroso/Nuñez vs Lopez/Bettineschi
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Barroso/Nuñez 50%
2-0
Icardo/Bataller vs Lorenz/Kremnitzer
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Lorenz/Kremnitzer 55%
2-1
Guna/Obaidly vs Tanoso/Husin
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Guna/Obaidly 50%
1-2
Garcia/Ganinduto vs Cabeza/Gonzalez
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Garcia/Ganinduto 50%
0-2
Tomita/Saputra vs Gonzalez/Lopez
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Tomita/Saputra 53%
0-2
Chang/Domenech vs Snoek/Kostic
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Chang/Domenech 50%
2-0
Vidal/Souri vs Solsona/Palomino
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Vidal/Souri 50%
2-0
Setiawan/Mahendra vs Chau/Lo
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Setiawan/Mahendra 50%
0-2
Garcia/Martin vs Chillaron/Sanchez
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Garcia/Martin 53%
0-2
Zhang/Chua vs Revilla/Hendrawan
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Zhang/Chua 50%
2-0
Blanco/Zareianjahromi vs Alsina/Barwani
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Blanco/Zareianjahromi 50%
2-0
Marti/Tamrin vs Erguy/Dawani
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Marti/Tamrin 54%
0-2
Prayanto/Pratama vs Bernal/Landaburu
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Prayanto/Pratama 50%
0-2
Riera/Kahrizi vs Ulhaq/Putri
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Riera/Kahrizi 50%
2-0
Sher/Narkprasert vs Oey/Lee
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Sher/Narkprasert 57%
2-0
Maharani/Maharani vs Putri/Awanda
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Maharani/Maharani 50%
0-2
Khabibulina/Sato vs Momha/Chan
14 Aug · 12:00 UTC
pick Momha/Chan 54%
1-2
Track record over time
30 months · 6.313 graded · avg Brier 0.185
Monthly Brier from each match's pre-match prediction (walk-forward, no hindsight). A flat line below the 0.25 coin-flip mark means the model stays calibrated month after month — no drift.
Jul ’23coin-flip 0.25Aug ’26
Mar
0.187
74% · 355
Apr
0.202
69% · 315
May
0.185
73% · 527
Jun
0.209
65% · 483
Jul
0.197
68% · 443
Aug
0.229
62% · 125
Accuracy Over Time
Stable numbers across windows mean the model isn't drifting. Sample size shown so equal rates aren't misread.
Last 7 days
63.2%
n = 19Brier 0.241
Last 30 days
64.6%
n = 350Brier 0.211
All time
70.4%
n = 6.527Brier 0.186
Calibration
Predicted vs actual win rate per band — close numbers mean the probabilities are honest.
BandExpectedActualn
50–55%53.0%51.6%1058
55–60%57.5%55.1%1123
60–65%62.4%63.5%787
65%+81.7%82.4%3559
Reliability
On the diagonal = honest. Above it = the model was too cautious, below = overconfident.
Prediction Distribution
Where today's win probabilities land — the model stays honest, not overconfident.
50–55%
69%
55–60%
12%
60–65%
6%
65%+
12%
Elo Leaderboard
The strongest Padel pairs by live Elo rating.
Confidence tiersElite65%+High60–65%Medium55–60%Low<55%· win probability of the favourite
How it works. An Elo model trained on real Padel results estimates each player's strength; the win probability follows from the rating gap, temperature-calibrated against past outcomes. No market odds, no value claims — just transparent model output and its measured accuracy.
7.664 matches · 2866 players tracked since 20 Jun 2023.
Biggest upsets
Where the model's favourite lost — honestly shown.
Sanchez/Santamariabeat 98%
over Fernandez/Martin · 2-0 · 01 Aug
Leal/Guerrerobeat 97%
over Coello/Tapia · 0-2 · 01 Aug
Gala/Jensenbeat 96%
over Nieto/Sanz · 2-1 · 27 May
Gonzalez/Campagnolobeat 95%
over Yanguas/Stupaczuk · 2-0 · 04 Jun
Garcia/Ruizbeat 94%
over Nenno/Navarro · 2-1 · 30 Jul
Sanchez/Santamariabeat 93%
over Pons/Senesi · 0-2 · 09 Aug
Hot streaks
Current winning runs across the league.
Sanchez/Fernandez11 W
Riera/Pelegri10 W
Valenzuela/Godallier9 W
Windahl/Vasquez6 W
Tapia/Coello5 W
Ayats/Sanchez5 W
Top rivalries
The most-played match-ups on record.
Chingotto/Galan vs Tapia/Coello39×
head-to-head 13-26
Coello/Tapia vs Sanz/Nieto14×
head-to-head 13-1
Alcorisa/Jensen vs Pons/Senesi12×
head-to-head 1-11
Martin/Fallada vs Pons/Sanchez12×
head-to-head 7-5
Sanchez/Fernandez vs Pons/Senesi10×
head-to-head 8-2
Fallada/Martin vs Fernandez/Sanchez10×
head-to-head 7-3