A transparent Elo model for Padel (Pro Tour) · updated 14 min ago
Every prediction scored against the real result — nothing hidden.
Monthly Brier from each match's pre-match prediction (walk-forward, no hindsight). A flat line below the 0.25 coin-flip mark means the model stays calibrated month after month — no drift.
Stable numbers across windows mean the model isn't drifting. Sample size shown so equal rates aren't misread.
Predicted vs actual win rate per band — close numbers mean the probabilities are honest.
On the diagonal = honest. Above it = the model was too cautious, below = overconfident.
Where today's win probabilities land — the model stays honest, not overconfident.
The strongest Setka Cup players by live Elo rating.
Where the model's favourite lost — honestly shown.
Current winning runs across the league.
The most-played match-ups on record.