27 Jun · 09:10 MESZ · 🏸 Italian Open WomenLow · Slight Edge
SN
🇮🇪Sophia Noble
ELO 1475
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stiglich
GS
🇮🇹Gianna Stiglich
ELO 1488
FormLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Stiglich
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 27%Total ~90 pts
0-2
27%
1-2
26%
2-1
24%
2-0
23%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.