27 Jun · 10:10 MESZ · 🏸 Italian OpenMedium · Model Lean
VT
🇹🇷Veysel Tasdemir
ELO 1556
FormWWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tasdemir
AW
🇫🇷Arthur Wakhevitsch
ELO 1517
FormWLLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Tasdemir
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 21% · 4.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~89 pts
2-0
31%
2-1
28%
1-2
22%
0-2
19%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.