27 Jun · 10:10 MESZ · 🏸 Italian OpenLow · Coin Flip
ER
🇬🇧Ethan Rose
ELO 1509
FormW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dalvi
ND
🇬🇧Nadeem Dalvi
ELO 1516
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Dalvi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 26%Total ~90 pts
0-2
26%
1-2
25%
2-1
24%
2-0
24%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.