28 Jun · 01:10 MESZ · 🏸 US OpenMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇮🇳Srikanth Kidambi
ELO 1508
FormWWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Okimoto
YO
🇯🇵Yudai Okimoto
ELO 1544
FormWWWLW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Okimoto
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~89 pts
0-2
31%
1-2
28%
2-1
22%
2-0
20%
Elo Gap+36
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.