30 Jun · 15:00 MESZ · 🏸 Canada Open Women QualMedium · Model Lean
YK
🇺🇦Yevheniia Kantemyr
ELO 1468
FormLLWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Korosi
AK
🇭🇺Agnes Korosi
ELO 1498
FormLLLLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Korosi
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 30%Total ~89 pts
0-2
30%
1-2
27%
2-1
22%
2-0
20%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.