30 Jun · 15:00 MESZ · 🏸 Canada Open QualLow · Slight Edge
MA
🇺🇸Mark Shelley Alcala
ELO 1480
FormLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wadia
IW
🇨🇦Imran Wadia
ELO 1489
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Wadia
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 12% · 8.53· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 27%Total ~90 pts
0-2
27%
1-2
26%
2-1
24%
2-0
23%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.