4 Jul · 17:00 MESZ · 🏸 Peru Int.Low · Slight Edge
GT
🇮🇹Giovanni Toti
ELO 1534
FormWWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Oliveira
DO
🇧🇷Donnians Oliveira
ELO 1540
FormWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Oliveira
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 27% · 3.72· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
0-2
39%
2-0
33%
1-2
14%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.