4 Jul · 15:00 MESZ · 🏸 Canada OpenLow · Slight Edge
VL
🇨🇦Victor Lai
ELO 1581
FormWWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lai
YO
🇯🇵Yudai Okimoto
ELO 1572
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lai
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 77% · 1.31· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.