14 Jul · 02:00 MESZ · 🏸 Japan OpenLow · Slight Edge
YS
🇨🇳Yuqi Shi
ELO 1585
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Okimoto
YO
🇯🇵Yudai Okimoto
ELO 1590
FormWWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Okimoto
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 21% · 4.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~85 pts
0-2
38%
2-0
33%
2-1
14%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+5
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.