14 Jul · 02:00 MESZ · 🏸 Japan OpenMedium · Model Lean
JC
🇮🇩Jonatan Christie
ELO 1540
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Teeraratsakul
PT
🇹🇭Panitchaphon Teeraratsakul
ELO 1555
FormLWWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Teeraratsakul
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 35% · 2.89· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
0-2
42%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.