14 Jul · 02:00 MESZ · 🏸 Japan Open WomenMedium · Model Lean
YH
🇨🇳Yue Han
ELO 1512
FormWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Miyazaki
TM
🇯🇵Tomoka Miyazaki
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Miyazaki
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 42% · 2.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
0-2
41%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.