15 Jul · 02:00 MESZ · 🏸 Japan Open WomenLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇬🇧Kirsty Gilmour
ELO 1553
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gilmour
HL
🇹🇼Hsiang Ti Lin
ELO 1538
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Gilmour
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+15
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.