14 Jul · 02:00 MESZ · 🏸 Japan OpenMedium · Model Lean
YT
🇯🇵Yushi Tanaka
ELO 1531
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Li
SL
🇨🇳Shifeng Li
ELO 1542
FormLWLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Li
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
0-2
40%
2-0
31%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.