14 Jul · 02:00 MESZ · 🏸 Japan Open WomenMedium · Model Lean
KG
🇬🇧Kirsty Gilmour
ELO 1521
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Gilmour
HL
🇹🇼Hsiang Ti Lin
ELO 1511
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Gilmour
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 47% · 2.11· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
31%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.