16 Jul · 02:00 MESZ · 🏸 Japan OpenMedium · Model Lean
KW
🇯🇵Koki Watanabe
ELO 1550
FormWLWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Watanabe
NN
🇮🇪Nhat Nguyen
ELO 1527
FormWLWLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Watanabe
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
2-0
41%
0-2
30%
2-1
15%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.