21 Jul · 07:15 MESZ · 🏸 China Open WomenMedium · Model Lean
RI
🇹🇭Ratchanok Intanon
ELO 1626
FormLLLWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Intanon
ML
🇨🇦Michelle Li
ELO 1596
FormLWLWW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Intanon
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
29%
2-1
16%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.