22 Jul · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 China Open WomenMedium · Model Lean
HL
🇹🇼Hsiang Ti Lin
ELO 1540
FormLWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Opatniputh
PO
🇹🇭Pitchamon Opatniputh
ELO 1570
FormLWLWL
41%
59%
⚡ Cover lean · Opatniputh
Fair odds · Opatniputh
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
0-2
43%
2-0
29%
1-2
16%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.