23 Jul · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 China OpenLow · Coin Flip
TC
🇹🇼Tien Chen Chou
ELO 1594
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chou
KN
🇯🇵Kodai Naraoka
ELO 1590
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Chou
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
2-0
37%
0-2
34%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.