23 Jul · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 China OpenMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇮🇳Ayush Shetty
ELO 1557
FormWLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Shetty
NN
🇮🇪Nhat Nguyen
ELO 1528
FormWLWLW
58%
42%
Fair odds · Shetty
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
29%
2-1
16%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.