23 Jul · 13:10 MESZ · 🏸 China Open WomenLow · Slight Edge
HL
🇹🇼Hsiang Ti Lin
ELO 1544
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lin
YH
🇨🇳Yue Han
ELO 1531
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 19% · 5.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
2-0
39%
0-2
32%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.