24 Jul · 05:40 MESZ · 🏸 China OpenMedium · Model Lean
VL
🇨🇦Victor Lai
ELO 1657
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lai
JC
🇮🇩Jonatan Christie
ELO 1624
FormWWLLW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Lai
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
28%
2-1
16%
1-2
12%
Elo Gap+33
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.