25 Jul · 04:25 MESZ · 🏸 China Open WomenLow · Slight Edge
AY
🇯🇵Akane Yamaguchi
ELO 1795
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Yamaguchi
ZW
🇨🇳Zhiyi Wang
ELO 1787
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Yamaguchi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~85 pts
2-0
38%
0-2
33%
1-2
14%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.