26 Jul · 08:15 MESZ · 🏸 China OpenMedium · Model Lean
TC
🇹🇼Tien Chen Chou
ELO 1625
FormWWWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Chou
TP
🇫🇷Toma Junior Popov
ELO 1598
FormWWWWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Chou
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
2-0
42%
0-2
29%
2-1
16%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+27
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.