30 Jul · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 Taipei OpenMedium · Model Lean
YO
🇯🇵Yudai Okimoto
ELO 1652
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Okimoto
MY
🇮🇩Muhamad Yusuf
ELO 1634
FormWLWWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Okimoto
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~85 pts
2-0
40%
0-2
31%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.