17 Aug · 07:00 MESZ · 🏸 World ChampionshipsMedium · Model Lean
HW
🇨🇳Hongyang Weng
ELO 1555
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Tanaka
YT
🇯🇵Yushi Tanaka
ELO 1579
FormLLLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Tanaka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~85 pts
0-2
41%
2-0
30%
1-2
15%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+24
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.