14 Aug · 05:00 MESZ · 🏸 Malaysia Int.Low · Coin Flip
SO
🇯🇵Shogo Ogawa
ELO 1513
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lau
JL
🇸🇬Jun Hui Marcus Lau
ELO 1516
FormLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lau
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 10% · 9.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
0-2
37%
2-0
34%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+3
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.