14 Aug · 05:00 MESZ · 🏸 Malaysia Int.Medium · Model Lean
MF
🇮🇩Muhammad Rafi Zafran Ferary
ELO 1518
FormWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Ferary
KM
🇯🇵Kosuke Masumoto
ELO 1489
FormL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Ferary
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
29%
2-1
16%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.