18 Aug · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 World Championships WomenLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇯🇵Riko Gunji
ELO 1614
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Gunji
TM
🇯🇵Tomoka Miyazaki
ELO 1604
FormLLWWW
53%
47%
⚡ Cover lean · Gunji
Fair odds · Gunji
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 31% · 3.20· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
2-0
39%
0-2
33%
2-1
14%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.