20 Aug · 10:30 MESZ · 🏸 World Championships WomenMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇨🇦Michelle Li
ELO 1611
FormWWWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Miyazaki
TM
🇯🇵Tomoka Miyazaki
ELO 1640
FormWWWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Miyazaki
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
0-2
43%
2-0
29%
1-2
16%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.