1 Sept · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 China MastersMedium · Model Lean
KW
🇯🇵Koki Watanabe
ELO 1567
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Watanabe
JG
🇭🇰Jason Gunawan
ELO 1537
FormLLWWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Watanabe
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
2-0
43%
0-2
29%
2-1
16%
1-2
13%
Elo Gap+30
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.