2 Sept · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 China MastersLow · Coin Flip
SL
🇨🇳Shifeng Li
ELO 1640
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Naraoka
KN
🇯🇵Kodai Naraoka
ELO 1643
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Naraoka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
0-2
37%
2-0
34%
2-1
15%
1-2
14%
Elo Gap+3
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.