2 Sept · 03:00 MESZ · 🏸 China MastersMedium · Model Lean
VL
🇨🇦Victor Lai
ELO 1669
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Okimoto
YO
🇯🇵Yudai Okimoto
ELO 1699
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Okimoto
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~85 pts
0-2
43%
2-0
29%
1-2
16%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+30
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.