3 Sept · 04:00 MESZ · 🏸 Indonesia MastersMedium · Model Lean
TM
🇮🇳Tharun Mannepalli
ELO 1508
FormWWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Ogawa
SO
🇯🇵Shogo Ogawa
ELO 1534
FormWWWLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Ogawa
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~85 pts
0-2
42%
2-0
30%
1-2
16%
2-1
13%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.