10 Sept · 11:55 MESZ · 🏸 Belgian Int.Low · Slight Edge
AL
🇫🇷Amaury Lievre
ELO 1578
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Waring
MW
🇬🇧Matthew Waring
ELO 1592
FormWWWLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Waring
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 19% · 5.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Game score (games)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~85 pts
0-2
39%
2-0
32%
1-2
15%
2-1
14%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.